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29/01/16

14:49

Post #: 16896498
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Originally posted by buffettmunger ↑

If you read my previous posts, then you know I have strong aversion to technical trading. Theories such as 'support' and patterns. Also I don't believe in rumours and speculations without logics and strong evidence.

I think today is an interesting day as a case study for those who believe they can predict short term movements.

Slater's current trading volume today until now is 3mil. I accounted for the sell side of around 80% of that. I still have shares left in Slater because I believe the price to reward/risk ratio is still good.

Why sell that lot of Slater then? Because I switched Slater and few other shares in my portfolios into Shine. I 'supported' the price of Shine the whole day until now, I need lunch and a break. I was willing to pay up to 60cents for Shine, at pretty big volume. The trading volume of Shine up until now is 29mil. I'm not sure how many of that is intraday trading (i.e. double counting, trading back and forth the same share), but most likely there is huge double counting due to the announcement and traders going crazy trying to predict movements minute by minute selling and buying. However, I have bought up a big chunk of Shine's shares, around 5mil, and permanently took it off the market for the day.

You might look Shine's share price and think why is that so stable at 60cents? And Slater as well? Patterns and theories? Well it's because one person such as me decided to get out of Slater at above 60cents and get into Shine at under 60cents. Just happens that one person's volume today accounted for majority of both shares permanent non-intraday trading volume.

For those of you looking at the charts and predicting supports or some strange theory like this, then you better explain how you can predict my logic to single handily support Shine and depress Slater. How do you know I was going to do this today at this price? And how do you even know someone like me exist?

Of course I'm not asking you to believe me. There are too many charlatans on this forum.

But just try to think about my argument how you can't predict share prices. Only sound logic is study the facts out there and make your own estimation of which company has the best value out of all the opportunities out there, and bet big with adequate diversification but not over diversification. Price will take care of itself in the long term because future announcements will prove you are right or wrong.

I have stopped buying and selling now, and I don't intend to do anything for the rest of the day and perhaps remain dormant for a long time until prices dramatically change like today. So don't try to read too much into my intentions, and copy what I do blindly.

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hope you got something out of posting that, i'm afraid I missed the point

SGH Price at posting: 61.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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