SGR (ASX) SGR Charting Thread 2024

Originally posted by Cheeky-Charm ↑

Greetings all. Cheeky Charm does an analyst DOWNGRADE on SGR as I see very little to warrant any BUYS IMO. My thesis outlined below. Goodluck all Holders Target Prices 40c short term, with potentials to hit as low as 30c

Not one to "time the markets" the best as my executions aren't great at times however I have been known to have rather accurate price predictions shortly after a thesis gets made.

In at 50c SHORT, stop losses at 52 or 53 as that is extremely supply ridden zone which I doubt clears. Target Price 40c but I will take profits too soon as always (if it gets there).

Upon my quick perusal of this company 2 main things have really stood out for me.

1: Each time SGR does a capital raise, it's by a -50% DISCOUNT from the last raise . For example, before the 60c recent capital raising prior to that was at $1.20 ?? I am happy to be corrected, my analysis was done VERY early in the morning several days ago 19th January at 2.05am

2: The Shortsell Data is extremely reflective of SGR's share price and almost as a predictive indicator. The 2nd posted image will share more on this notion.

Daily Chart below shows the trend, down. Lower Highs featured with lower lows. It seems to be respecting the trendline channel to the downside and therefore if another retest of the white trendline occurs, this puts targets at 40c and slightly lower.

If we go by C.R discounts, we may speculate that SGR has downside to 30c atleast

ShortSell Data shows a stock teetering on the verge of a Delisting. Troubled waters IMO but of course SGR will never delist! I am just highlighting a point.

Using the T/A Chart above, we can note the Short Positions being increased in RED CIRCLES

BUY TO COVERs and or margin calls of shorts having to close out their position is seen in the GREEN CANDLES

ITS LIKE THEY KNOW EACH TIME!!! What are they prepping for, that they have NOT disclosed to the rest of the markets? Why would they when there's BILLIONS of shares on issue and each man is in it for themselves....

If we have a look at the last time SGR had a parabolic shortsell interest the prices went down badly!

We now recently see a VERY similar shortsell data spike, as folks have been shorting it in January heavily also.

Everyone from the 60c C.R is under water, are trying their attempts at dipbuying to bail out. Friday last week (19th January) saw a monster After Hours transaction I can't recall but it was a scary 40M+ units someone large is still cashing out IMO

AS I SAID MY TIMING IS NOT THE BEST CHANCES ARE INSIDERS TRY AND SPIKE THIS KNOWING MY THESIS IS BEARISH
I personally didn't think I would be able to attempt a SHORT at 50c but I have a tiny amount now and technically down 1c on it. Already signs of my prematurity and signs that it's due to tank NOT IF but WHEN. All eyes on the 48c Props will give an indicator on future pricing

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@Cheeky-Charm have you graduated from your paper trading exercises yet?

Two near term catalysts to keep an eye on that could really see a decent share price appreciation:
1. Mathieson getting the green light to acquire up to 20% (last change of sub notice ~6.5% ?)
2. Resolution of the pending APRA fine

Chart wise, need to see 53c resistance reclaimed = positive MACD cross. Conversely a close below 49c will open the door for a potential retest of the recent lows in the mid / low 40’s