shakeout coming, page-4

Sorry I don't want to mislead - the interview is from 2006. So to clarify Upperman essentially says that in looking at COT data he tracks the Commercials but that the Funds represent the smart money. The are the ones trading in and out of the markets looking to capture trends.

(Also read some other stuff by other traders essentially stating that the COT data should not be taken to represent price movements but rather be used to determining trends - so this correlates).

He goes on to state that Commercials have more of an an inverse relationship with price.

It is not as simple as to take a look at the Commercial positions. One needs to look at the deviations from the mean and the positions of Large Non-Commercials. The article is well worth reading for detailed explanation of interpreting COT data IMO.