shall i sell today and take a dog bath?

On Feb figures x 12 months- Cu 47% hedged + Ag 65% hedged remainder @ current market price - all less C1 @ 2.50 + Admin + Loan Interest = ~ $50M PBT. Same as previous @ C1 $3.50 ~$8M PBT. (expect no tax payable FY ‘13)

Can DML maintain an average of Feb ‘13 production numbers – Likely

Are C1 costs $2.50 right now? – Not Likely

Can C1 average $2.50 within 12 months? – Likely

Can C1 average below $2.50 within 24 months? - Likely

Can management succeed with debt capital markets issuance?
* Current Mt Cap ~$171M / Longer Debt ~$200- 250M – Not likely - Examples anyone?
* $50M projected NPAT x 8 = Mt Cap $400M /debt $200-250M - Perhaps with bonds @ higher rates?
* Other DCF

Will current banks extend existing facility again if management can’t succeed with debt capital markets issuance? – they might not want to but if targets being met they probably will - but will insist on a Cap raise.

Will management Cap raise earlier? – Unlikely - last resort

Will DML survive – Yes


As per Kaleen post 16/04/13 “Spoke to the company a few weeks back and they said they fully expected projected production costs/targets would be met with a bit more sorting out.”

Where will DML be in 12 months then 24 months?


Yes my opinions are my dog view of the world and they generally have fleas. Do your own research and get help fast.