Cinco stands out as the obvious first drill target for several reasons incl water depth (lower cost) , play type (malampaya analogue) and higher POS. This is exactly how Hardman/WPL played offshore mauratania . chinguetti was never the largest structure , simply had the highest POS.
I expect drilling will be late 2012 , but possibly as soon as 15 months from now , BHP have never been ones to rush drills , and DW drilling is ultra expensive hence the need to take all the time required to derisk as much as possible.
DOE would grant a 1 year extension to the aug drill deadline without doubt imo due to the huge expense incurred already by BHP in the permit.
Lets see how Gindara goes ... could be an oil rush , or could be an opportunity to get set in OEL at circa 8c sometime over the next 18~24 months imo.
DYOR
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