Share Price After Award Decision, page-58

In theory, the whole award should go into the market cap.  Obviously, some anticipation of an award has already been priced in so cannot just be added on to current SP.  Ignoring other factors - such as a payout may indicate that POH's IP is worth more than we have been getting paid for it recently.  If you look at the SP over the last little while (lets say average of 1.75c), MC ~ 28M give or take.  If POH receives an award of say 28M then the share price should double to 3.5c (in theory). Where this fails to eventuate is because different companies have different track records in terms of return on capital (ROI or ROACE etc.). If I think hard about POH, their track record hasn't been great so many would have the expectation that the board will turn that $28M into somewhat less than $28M shareholder value.  Would need to check back a couple of annual reports to come up with a more accurate estimate, but for me personally, I would value any cash on POH's balance sheet at 50%.  Of course if is valued too lowly then the company is open to corporate raiders, presumably one reason they are proposing a capital return.