Why speculate over how much will be returned and how much retained?
The overall amount will have an effect on the share price - that is, the amount the market considers is not already built in - and when the return amount is determined , this will reduce the share price accordingly.
However, just because the directors have put forward a suggested payout formula, that doesn't mean it is set in stone - it will need shareholder approval and why would the shareholders agree to a payout amount that left surplus, unused capital inside the company?
Once any award is made, this becomes a capital management exercise. The Company should only keep what it believes is necessary for its foreseeable operating and development requirements - any other amount should be returned to its rightful owners (the shareholders).
Why speculate over how much will be returned and how much...
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