share price after ex div date

Hi fellow posters, I bought in a month ago on expectation of the special dividend. Happy with the 15 cent FF special divvy. I expect the share price to rise a little in next few sessions - as perhaps there were a few investors not fully aware of the opportunity until todays announcement and incidental media coverage. Not sure where the price will settle. Maybe around the 50 cent mark give or take a few cents. I am wondering about posteres veiws as to what the share price will do after the ex dividend date. Standard theory is the price will correct to accomodate for concomitant reduction in value. So assuming price rests around 50 cents, after ex dividend the share price will drop to around 35 cents per share? What do people think? The NTA per share of around 69 cents could suggest the share price may not fall as strongly. The EBIT of remaining business of circa 50 mill would surely support a share price of around 35 cents per share. One would also expect that recent tax losses will also lighten the tax burden going forward as well so next few years the "T" burden in EBIT may not impact on EPS as heavily as it ordinarily would. Of course impacting the remaining business EBIT is the loss of recent big contract along with other challenges facing the industry.

Just a few observations.

What are people thinking re post ex div price???