They had a working capital of $(26.0)m at Dec 23. If the want to...

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jace.h

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30/05/24

12:54

Post #: 74082585
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Originally posted by shaidar1974: ↑

cool, no worries. I just rewatched the video, from the 3:20 position, he did go into what the PNL might look like.
He mentioned a profit before tax of between 70m-90m and they would withhold a working capital (good thing) value of say $20m. Balance then could be available for distributions to shareholders.

I just did a quick table what we might get at those profit levels in way of a future dividend. I have also estimated the current year by simply doubling the half year result (with coal price increasing, it 'should' be better), assuming they will pay off the balance of income tax ($48m) before being in a position to paying dividends. Note the tax rate isn't 30% as the share of associates has no tax implications for TER. If they manage to pay the tax balance off before or around August when the full year results are issued, we may see a 1-2 cent dividend for the 2024 FY result (fingers crossed). If not, i would estimate/hope (if profit is as mentioned) a dividend off December 2024 half year report of around 1.5-2.5 cents, and then going forward dividends each half year of similar value.

I live in hope. This company, at the current coal prices, is profitable and should be generating good cash, they just need to get coal on a boat. obviously if coal price drops, profit drops.

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They had a working capital of $(26.0)m at Dec 23. If the want to get to $20.0m, they'll need to retain $46.0m (which is similar to their tax liability of $48.4m). If we take the high NPAT estimate of $63.0m, that is 9 months (Sep 24) to pay off.

If they manage to sell SA or coal prices moon, may be quicker than 9 months. Otherwise I expect they resume dividend payments from early 2025.

Last edited by jace.h: 30/05/24

TER Price at posting: 22.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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