share price by june 2011, page-2

Hi rocksinhead,
Thanks for your efforts here. Just a few comments. I come at it a bit differently but same-ish result.

Its nice to also see someone who recognises that there was an $8m shortfall in the last raising. I agree that they may not need the full extra $8m but they did state that these funds were for the drilling/expansion of Bullant and to drill/progress Kempfield. "working capital and admin"

Kempfield (we will have 70% come production). So far = "a project to produce 12 million ounces of payable silver, 15,000 ounces of gold and 42,000 tonnes of payable lead and zinc in concentrates over a 10.5 year mine life."

Now, using figures from a recent YTC presentation.
Ag = A$240m
Au = A19.8m
Pb+Zn = A$84,000
T = $344m / 10.5 yr mine life
= $32m pa gross
say half that after Capex and Opex
= $16m profit pa. X 70%
= $11.2m pa From kempfield

Bullant right now has 110k ozs and say a 5 1/2 yr life @ 20,000ozs pa.

Bullant is to be contract mined and ore toll treated. So i'm guessing around $400 oz profit
= $8m pa.

total income from both say $20m pa for min 5 years.

Obviously, you can get out of the above whatever you like. Using 10% discount over just 5 years (ignoring further out years)
then PV income to ARD will be $82m

Im guessing that they will raise another $4m @ 16c. Fully diluted = approx 170m shares.

this = about 48c per share.
with lots of wobbly assumptions including steady state production and no resource increases.

This is for discussion only is not scientific, economic and probably not rational