And we'll be debt free in a couple of months..... Remember, guidance is using US$80 for WTI, which assumed it was going to pull back a little. Instead the oil price has risen far higher and still well above $80. The WCS differential has also been well above guidance, adding to more upside.
Personally I think the guidance of US$80 was retained because that's basically where one third of production is hedged. It's easier to talk around guidance when you take this assumption. However, we all know it was wrong, and there's a material beat on this figure for 4+ months into the 6 month reporting period.
Don't forget gas has gone gangbusters as well which makes up a sizeable portion of the revenue, so its fair to assume that the realised average realised price for Calima since the beginning of the calendar year has been around $90-95 boe USD after hedging, or basically $10-15 a barrel above forecast.
At 4,500 boepd that's US$1.5-2m per month extra free cash flow, so I think we will likely have debt repaid before end of June, not a balance of $3-5m as the last guidance stated. If my logic is right, we could be anywhere between $5-10m net cash surplus by 30 June not $3-5m net debt.
EV of $120m now, not $140m from two months ago. As debt is repaid the EV comes down. Current EBITDA is about $60-80m annualised, with about $30m of annual capex to grow, that's 2.5-3.5x EV net of the capex..... (the EV ratios you see on peers likely either ignore capex or assume a modest 10% allocation of cash flow).
Plus whatever Montney is worth (it's a lot).
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