Don’t forget everyone seems worried about the demand impact from China/Beijing too. While it’s true in the very short term, markets are forward looking and will be looking at the ‘re-opening trade’ soon which will be extremely bullish coupled with the supply challenges. I think there is upside risk on present oil prices this calendar year.
It’s also worth noting that oil has averaged US$5-10 higher than the assumption used for this quarters guidance ($95). We’re almost at the mid point of this quarter. Add in the favourable currency movement and even potential for production to come in a bit higher given the exit rate was 4300 per day, and there is a very real/likely chance we’ll do more than the $18m EBITDA forecast.
$36m-$40m EBITDA FOR THE HALF!!! That for a net cash company with a market cap of ~$100m is why I’m still invested and remain extremely bullish. And yes, I have bought on the way down despite the relentless selling. At some stage it will turn. You just can’t ignore the profits that this will be making.
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