this chart really says it all, and also explains a big part of why the SP is where it is... as I've said before i think the market wants to see that cold hard net cash in the bank before it re-rates... which to me means most likely october (sep quarterly), but i hope in a week or so.
If WCS manages to hold up for the next 5 months and mgmt are disciplined with capex then i think we'll be net cash of $20-30m (best case) come Jan, but also after we've bought back the 60m of SOI (about $10m). I'm not sure i'm there yet re 5500 bbl in Q4 @retorn123 ... we'll be lucky to hit 5000 given declines, outages etc but given mgmt track record here i think sustainably we'll be closer to 4500 avg by Q4
anyway long way of saying - patience and a bit of luck re oil prices holding up for a few more months and this will have to re-rate
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