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at merger time they stated 24 wells and 5500 at end 2022take...

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retorn123

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25/07/22

12:11

Post #: 62709264
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Originally posted by TheGoss31: ↑

yea you're right they have been conservative/in line with mgmt actuals. interesting, but i missed this in their latest note (6 Jul). the Q2 numbers are horrible if that is disclosed next couple of days - it means we'll have to wait another quarter or 2 to believe mgmt

We have reduced our production forecast for 2Q22 from ~4.3 mboe/d to 3.7 mboe/d and from 4.3 mboe/d to 4.2 mboe/d in 3Q22. We continue to forecast ~5.0 mboe/d in 4Q22. We have marginally reduced our FY22 production forecasts from ~4.4 mboe/d to ~4.2 mboe/d

So $30m of capex for 9months to Sep, will get us from 3200 (Q4CY21) to maybe 4500-5000 (Q4CY21) - it's not bad but it's a miss from the 5-5500 that management were bandying around late CY21.

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at merger time they stated 24 wells and 5500 at end 2022

take their capex guidance and inflation as $40m and they should do it

5500 end 2022, and 6 early 2023

the earlier production miss was 2 wells that underperformed

Last edited by retorn123: 25/07/22

CE1 Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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