James, appreciate your constructive posts and will hope others keep a similar track - positive or negative.
I would say on your question, the key thing you’re not taking into account is the potential earnings on that 6000boe/d as opposed to just the capex. Yes, capex goes up significantly but you’d hope cashflow and earnings would too. You need to look at both sides of the equation.
Personally I think 6000boe/d is not possible in 12 months. I also think that we have front ended capex so if you take out the clean outs our true avg should be 4200-4300 give or take.
Either way, if we do $50m in FCF next year then our forward EV is about $30m.
For all the critical things to say about the business and management can anyone say that a $30m EV (roughly) next year including Montney is over valued. I say no.
CE1 Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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