APRA publishes some useful data on Genworth’s quarterly claim payments that the company itself does not share.
The company has warned for some time about the looming spike in payments from customers coming out of COVID loan deferrals. The data below proves that was a nothing-burger!
Claim payments have steadily dropped in the past six quarters to almost nothing, as house prices appreciated and unemployment reduced. 22Q1 reported $6m of gross payments against $121m of gross premium income. I expect similar numbers for Q2 given the improved employment stats and stable house prices v Q1. It is going to take significant falls in house prices COUPLED WITH large increases in unemployment to get claim payments back to pre-COVID levels (I note such levels still provide attractive profitability to shareholders).
Share Price Catalysts, page-26
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