I would have expected the share price to have held up better...

I would have expected the share price to have held up better than this. Sure, house prices will come down in the short-term due to rising rates from front-loaded RBA action. But beyond that, housing is a traditional hedge against inflation as its value reflects the rising rents and rising wages. And insurers typically benefit from rising rates as they earn larger returns on their asset portfolios. But I suppose everything gets sold off in a crash.

With low vacancy rates, immigration restarting and a tight labour market, I don’t expect the systemic double-trigger to occur where Genworth
pays more in claims and expenses than premium income – which I understand to be around a 9% unemployment rate.

While the intrinsic value is solid with a $6 NTA, the share price will probably experience more turbulence until the H1 results are announced. We can at least look forward to the continued buyback, where every $1m of shares bought back under $3 creates $1m in value for remaining shareholders (given the $6 NTA).