Looks like they will easily get to the $100 M for Buyback Mk I,...

Looks like they will easily get to the $100 M for Buyback Mk I, they only need ~$740 k a day for the rest of the month. So I think we can assume that is done and dusted and that total SOI will fall to just below 380 M on completion of that scheme.

We then have Buy back Mk II - kick in for 60 M shares, which at current prices will only cost around $150 M. That will take them down to 320 M SOI.

We will still need to return another $250 M to get down to 1.6 X PCA (the upper limit of the target range) - if that is announced with the half yearly based on 380 M SOI - it's $0.65 per share.

I think we are still reserved conservatively for a downturn, even after the last 3 quarters of reserve releases we are reserved about $93 M over pre-pandemic levels.

The days of negative claims costs are over, I don't think they will release any further reserves until things settle down a bit but we are still a quarter or two (minimum) away from seeing if there is an appreciable uptick in delinquencies.

So whatever the sentiment of the market is, and it is clearly negative towards GMA, the half yearly will show a set of numbers that says the company is in rude financial health and probably about to throw off an interim dividend ~ 10% of the SP or a 20% yield annualised.