The "near miss" recession that Macquarie is predicting is going to occur when Australia has near record terms of trade, in a (USD denominated) commodities super cycle with the AUD at 69c. Probably another year of record agricultural production for the third year in a row in East Coast Australia just as grain prices reach obscene levels (2-3 times anything anyone has ever seen in AUD terms) - wish I had a John Deere dealership.
With a current unemployment number that starts with a 3 and a skilled immigration program that could be turned on at any moment to fill the myriad job vacancies throughout the economy.....
More dumb luck than good management but Australia has a few buffers in place to avoid a recession.
Share Price Catalysts, page-67
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