Ok, while we are having a stab at SP, let's look at "potential"...

Ok, while we are having a stab at SP, let's look at "potential" catalysts. I tend to evaluate on a risk/reward basis. What is the likely downside form here, has sentiment changed, what is the upside.

We also have examples of companies like Fortescue that had massive growth between finance/offtake and preproduction - so we need to be careful with seeing up to March as a panacea.

Broker valuations are in the vicinity of .80 cents. (Technically, we are moving to that price point nicely). IMO, these vals are below the mark for a number of reasons.

IO Price - broker valus SDL at $55 - $60 per ton. SPOT IO is $175 per ton with projections moving upward next few years. Obviously, we wont get SPOT but contract rates are much higher that the vals worked into the numbers. (ALLOW a multiple of 2X)

Resource. - Broker vals generally Based on high grade IO only with over 1 billion tons of Itabrite not accounted for. Also, the 35mt is being increasingly referred to by SDL Management as a low base. 50mt and 100mt is now becoming a talking point. (ALLOW a multiple between 2 to 3 X)

Infrastructure. SDL will be paid handsomely by other parties who are already "dottted" lining to the SDL railway. There may be JVs, fees, royalties etc... Remember that Cameroon and Congo Govts have a 15% stake in SDL now. They will benefit from this arrangement as part of their overall nationally development plans and initiatives. SDL is first mover. (ALLOW????)

Finance - SDL project is a national interest one for Conga and Cameroon. Possibility if some finance arrangements there.

Peer comparisons - interesting posts by others re development cycle of Fortescue and others. Apparently FMG was around our level at a similar time to where we are now.

So, there are a lot of upward catalysts that suggest that a multiple of 6 on broker vals is probable. So .80 x 6 = $4.80.

Knowing the calibre of this team, it is more likely that surpise will be to the upside.