First, be clear that the following is all guesstimates. Nothing...

First, be clear that the following is all guesstimates. Nothing is certain until and unless it happens. With that caveat in place, here goes:

GKM has assumed that TIS will get 30% of sales as it's revenue. This after allowing 40% as Quintile's costs and distribution costs, and assuming a 50/50 split of the net result, which seems reasonable given Management comments and known rates of Royalty. Management suggested their deal doubled the rate of return to TIS.

The total Market has been stated to be $14 billion, growing at 25% pa, which means it is forecast to be $21.88 billion at the end of 2013.

TIS operating costs last financial year were approx $3.3 million, refer their quarterly cash flow in July 2011. I exclude stock purchase, interest income, grants and tax refunds etc. We'll allow them $10 million in future!

My figures for the initial market allow 2% for North Italy (not ALL Italy, Bumskins, though that would make it better), and 1.5% for the minor countries, plus 15% for the UK and Germany. Total of 18.5% for this market or, by end 2013, $4.05 billion in sales potential.

For TIS to get only 4.57% of the projected market at end 2013 - as their projection suggests, is ridiculous. Pfizer cornered 7.5% of the testosterone therapy market with a new product, against competitors, in just 6 months. I suggest allowing a 10% penetration by end 2013 (after 18 months from start) - at least. There are umpteen reasons why it ought to be much more, but that's just my opinion.

So, TIS potentially get to an annual rate of $405 million in gross sales by end 2013, which is a net $121.5 million for themselves. Deduct $10 million for their own Company costs and 30% for tax, leaving $78.05 million as net earnings. On 171 million shares and options this gives a fully diluted EPS of 45.64c and, using a P/E of 12, a price per share of $5.48 - at end 2013.

My numbers only, and if I have made any errors along the way I humbly apologise, but anyone can extrapolate the potential if the Market grows at 25% compound pa, and as they enter more of the Market, France and the Nordics in 2014, the USA, Canada, Australia etc in 2015.

Why would anyone accept a miserable takeover offer not at least in double digit dollars? I certainly don't want to see that happen!

The above is my work, it includes suppositions only an amateur could make and no responsible Management would dream of broadcasting to the Market (unless they truly desired to go into seclusion) and everyone should "DYO"!!!