Forecasting a 22% price rise in 3 months is pretty impressive,...

  1. 11 Posts.
    Forecasting a 22% price rise in 3 months is pretty impressive, nearly as impressive as the recent prediction for a 40% price drop, so the divergence in opinions is fascinating.

    Have you considered:

    1. Forecast dividend payout is 64c (94c is the historical)
    2. Any significant acquisition (eg GGP) will require a capital raising and at a 5% discount will pull the price back below $12
    3. A capital raising would further dilute the DPS although one can assume any acquisition will be immediately earnings accretive
    4. The stock is trading at a premium to it's NTA, and is one of the few A-REIT's to do so. There's not a lot of momentum or news to push this one significantly higher.
    5. This is a REIT that derives the majority of it's earnings from the US with unemployment at nearly 10% and underemployment at 17%. And the US economy is going nowhere exciting in the next 3, 6, 9, 12 months. Once the stimulus is withdrawn and taxes rise, as they surely will, the US will have to stand on its own two feet and it's going to be a long arduous climb back to solid growth.

    So lets look at the big picture. If you get to > $13 by June you will have done a wonderful job. Forecasting $15 (and a dividend yield of 4%) is at best highly questionable and at worst irresponsible. Don't forget this is no Macquarie Group, its a REIT.

 
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