Don't think Qenos is about to shut its Botany facility anytime...

Don't think Qenos is about to shut its Botany facility anytime soon. As a SOE China Bluestar is unlikely to be under any ST financial pressure and generally would be inclined to look at its investment from a LT perspective.

Having said that, the risk of the contract being terminated exists and needs to be priced in the absence of greater certainty.

My base case remains that the ethane contract will be renewed. WHen/if this occurs, EPX will rerate. At $2, gross yield approx. 8-9% - not unreasonable in this scenario.