Their 15,000t MREC contains up to 8,500t TREO, which would contain 3,400tpa NdPr (given their 40% NdPr weighting).
You can work their numbers out and then use a similar logic on Longonjo.
Yangibana: 38,300tpa concentrate * 27% concentrate grade * 0.8035 * 0.4 (basket weighting) gives you 3,323tpa NdPr. I'm off by about 70t in this calc compared to their 3,400tpa figure
Longonjo: 50,000tpa concentrate * 39% (ndpr) concentrate recovery * 0.8 (rough recovery) * 0.21 (basket weighting) = 3,276tpa NdPr. The company clearly thinks it can do better than my above calcs given 3,700tpa was provided as an estimate in the company presentation.
However if you are to use the actual PFS figure of 55,900tpa of concentrate instead of 50,000, you get 3,662tpa of NdPr carbonate, which is right next to the 3,700tpa the company claims. Thus I think my calcs aren't all that far from being wrong.
If you take a look at the Hastings DFS from a few years back they claim annual sales revenue of AUD$379million from 15,000t of MREC. That works out to be AUD$25,266/t of Carbonate. They claim NdPr makes up for "85-90% of projected revenue" (lets use 87.5%), that works out to AUD$22,107.75/t NdPr or USD$16,581 based on the 0.75:1 exchange rate in the DFS.
They've got 15,000tpa containing 3,400tpa NdPr (22.6% of their Carbonate is NdPr), (8,500/3,400 gives you the % NdPr given the overall contained TREO).
If we look more at the tpa of TREO for Longonjo within the MREC, Using 50,000 as per the company announcement as opposed to 55,900 as per the PFS, * 35% TREO concentrate recovery * 0.8 (rough recovery) = 14,000 (thus my rough initial guesstimate in the thread of 15,000tpa Carbonate). Hastings end up with about the same NdPr given their abnormally high NdPr basket weighting, however Longonjo has the higher concentrate grade.
Hastings basket value as per the DFS was around US$32/kg ~ US$32,000t. If 87.5% of that is NdPr then their basket value from purely NdPr is AUD$28,000t or US$21,000. Sticking with the roughly 20% - 25% discount for oxides as I previously mentioned, (using the middle - 22.5% discount) that brings the NdPr basket value for Hastings to $16,275 (only a few hundred off from my $16,581 figure above)
If you look at Hastings most recent December preso, they list a basket price of US$23.76/kg. The basket price in the DFS was therefore 1.34x higher than the December listed basket price. This puts the current NdPr price (for Hastings NdPr contained in Carbonate) at US$12,145/t. Given that NdPr makes up roughly 87.5% of the value for Hastings, and likely Longonjo, it puts the Hastings current carbonate price per tonne at US$13,880. Longonjo price may differ slightly. This IMO, is an accurate representation of the current state of the market.
It's hard to use the Ashram Hydromet cost per tonne as the numbers are very rough and Ashram are feeding a 10% concentrate as opposed to Hastings or Longonjo much higher figure. Either way if you use their figure (NOTE: This figure could be wildly inaccurate given the much higher % concentrate at Longonjo - and therefore could come down significantly) (Minus the 30% they added on for a contractor, then add on the cost per tonne of concentrate for Longonjo as per PFS ($1,323/t) you're probably looking VERY ROUGHLY around $7,500/t. I'll let someone else crunch the numbers and provide an NPV based on these carbonate and cost figures.
Also keep in mind that all the experts are predicting an NdPr price increase as NdPr supply tightens further.Obviously my numbers are rough, but IMO I've done enough to prove they are somewhat accurate as all the numbers pretty much line up. Happy to be corrected if there are any blatant errors
$12,145/0.4 (ndpr weighting for yangibana) * 1.25 = ndpr price per tonne of $38,000. I don't think thats too far off current prices All IMO, Not financial advice.
