share price in 2012

For people getting to BBI as a LT Buy, I'm curious what you think the SP will be in 4-5 yrs from now.

Based on my back of the envelope numbers:

Net Assets = 2.9B
(Source: Oct 2008 Investor Pack. I realise that there has been a sale since then but that has not grossly changed the Net Assets).

Shares on issue 2.7B

Provsions
They need about 1.0B to pay out BEPPA at 2012. I dont believe that has been accounted for in the Net Assets

Net Income 0.3B pa
(Assuming no asset sales)



So they need pretty much all their income over the next 4 yrs to make provisions for BEPPA.

Selling assets at best wont affect the Net Asset value much, just improve their gearing. I cant see them making sales above current book value.



To me, that means that at best the shares are worth about $1.00 - $1.10 per share. Alot of people seem to be using best case scenario numbers as the basis of buying BBI. Or even "better than best" case scenario - eg target price of $1.00 within 12 months with the implication that the uptrend will continue...........

Comments?

Btw I bought BEPPA because I dont think the blue sky potential of BBI is as good as some people are making out.