Risked price in IIR analysis was $0.133 for rubies ( risked down by 80% ) on 453,600 carats tendered over 12 months. Remove risk and you get $0.665.
Allowing for increased production...
We know Mustang are planning to exceed 300,000 carats in 1st auction. Let's assume 330,000 at each of two auctions for a 12 month scenario at 660,000 carats.
Extrapolating Risked 80%:
660,000 / 453,000 x $0.133 = $0.194
Extrapolating Unrisked:
660,000 / 453,000 x $0.665 = $0.969
Given progress to date ( auction confirmed, buyers booked in, quality rubies / deposits, grading system done, insurance/security arrangements in place, Ruby demand, forward strategies announced ) let's assume only 40% risk post-auction.
60% x $0.969 = $0.58.
After 2 auctions we will have some results so reduce risk in 2018 to 30%.
70% x $0.969 = $0.678.
There you go. 12-18 month price target extrapolated from IRR analysis giving share price range.
Pre-auction: $0.194 ( extrapolation of IIR risked using increased production )
Post auction: $0.58 ( for period leading into second auction approx March, risked down by 40% )
After two auctions: $0.678 ( risked down by 30% )
Some rough extrapolating but good for an alternative set of indicative share prices.
MUS Price at posting:
9.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held