G79 0.00% 2.7¢ goldoz limited

Share Price in leadup to Auction, page-326

  1. 11,249 Posts.
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    Risked price in IIR analysis was $0.133 for rubies ( risked down by 80% ) on 453,600 carats tendered over 12 months. Remove risk and you get $0.665.

    Allowing for increased production...

    We know Mustang are planning to exceed 300,000 carats in 1st auction. Let's assume 330,000 at each of two auctions for a 12 month scenario at 660,000 carats.

    Extrapolating Risked 80%:
    660,000 / 453,000 x $0.133 = $0.194

    Extrapolating Unrisked:
    660,000 / 453,000 x $0.665 = $0.969

    Given progress to date ( auction confirmed, buyers booked in, quality rubies / deposits, grading system done, insurance/security arrangements in place, Ruby demand, forward strategies announced ) let's assume only 40% risk post-auction.

    60% x $0.969 = $0.58.

    After 2 auctions we will have some results so reduce risk in 2018 to 30%.

    70% x $0.969 = $0.678.

    There you go. 12-18 month price target extrapolated from IRR analysis giving share price range.

    Pre-auction: $0.194 ( extrapolation of IIR risked using increased production )
    Post auction: $0.58 ( for period leading into second auction approx March, risked down by 40% )
    After two auctions: $0.678 ( risked down by 30% )

    Some rough extrapolating but good for an alternative set of indicative share prices.
 
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