Well put Shreyab.
I'm with you.
The only thing I would add is that I am very bullish on gold-hence my portfolio being 100% gold exposure. I know some will say that's bad money management, but if I don't like anything else, I won’t invest.
Back to gold and KGL;
I prefer to look at the valuation rather than pick a short term target.
Andash will be worth around 40c on Andash zone 1 only for a cashflow multiple of 5 at current prices for copper and gold and using costs from the F.S.
Add zones 2 and 3 would boost it to around 50c and Atkash at least 60c.
Those are my estimates but the FS gives a good indication of how much the NPV rises when more ore is added.
We don't have Atkash yet but as most of us are aware, it is not a stand alone project so we should get it back when we want it.
Using $2500 for gold (but still $3.40 for copper), I get a 50% jump in valuation for a range of 60c zone 1 only to 90c with Atkash.
Burnakura valuation is difficult till we get the FS results, but on my assumptions, its worth around 13-16c at 1600-1800 gold at the start up rate plus heap leach. That’s better than the current share price and it is just our smallest project.
My assumptions are cash costs at $900 at the start up rate for the CIL, $800 on the heap leach, and $800 on the CIL after capacity is doubled.
The heap leach cash costs could be way too high considering the mining costs are minimal as the material is pre-strip for the CIL.
We also do not yet know if agglomeration is needed.
If not, the costs should be cut drastically.
We have enough 2.9g/t ore to provide 18 years of production at 250,000tpa.
At the start up rate, I assume 250,000 tpa CIL. Average grade of 3.7g/t in the initial years assuming a feed of 50% u/g ore, 50% open pit ore (open pit ore averaging 2.9g/t) gives me 27,363 ounces at 92% recovery (same as previous operation achieved). We own a heap leach circuit which can operate at better than 750,000 tpa and the “waste” from the CIL will be ore averaging 0.91g/t. Assuming 70% recovery, produces another 15,288 ounces.
I combined the two operations cash profits then deducted exploration expenses of 6mill/yr, admin of 5mill/yr, and sustaining capex at 1.3 mill/yr. Also royalties and the usual taxes and depreciation.
Again my numbers will be conservative as the reality is corporate taxes will likely be zero for the first couple of years thanks to carried forward expenses.
The result is a cashflow multiple of 10 (or just 6.9 at $1800 gold) at a 12c share price. If CIL is doubled I get a multiple of 5.7 or 4.3 at $1800 gold.
Too cheap and even cheaper if you allow for upside at Gab.
The heap leach makes a big contribution to my valuation.
The upcoming FS probably will not include the heap leach so don't expect it to show the same valuation as I have come up with. It should be significantly lower, but the heap leach is highly likely to be added so should not be ignored.
It will be worth more like 40-55c at $2500 gold because of the greater leverage to gold price, but also because the CIL plant will surely be doubled in capacity as currently envisaged by management (still allowing for 9 years from only the high grade part of the resources at Burn and Gab. Doubling of capacity will only cost around 10mill so will be easily justified at $1900 gold let alone $2500 gold.
Before anyone calls me mad or accuses me of pumping the stock, please run the numbers first and then show your results. I will be happy to debate results.
I think the $2500 gold target (sustainable) is a certainty by around 1-2 years time.
A Jervois valuation is even more difficult this early, but I would expect something in the range of 30-50c at spot copper and silver.
It will be leveraged to the copper and silver prices and they are very volatile and may continue that way for years.
With $2500 gold, Andash alone can get us to near $1 without any consolidation.
With Burnakura, we should easily go well beyond $1, and then we have Jervois for further growth.
Without $2500 gold, I see us getting to $1 still, but we will need Jervois so it will be an extra couple of years to get there.
Again, please no criticism without supporting evidence.
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Well put Shreyab. I'm with you.The only thing I would add is...
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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