HI all… These are very happy days at the moment! Just a quick...

HI all…
These are very happy days at the moment!

Just a quick backstory …..
My ears were pricked when I heard the name CVN, around 4 years ago, during a late night pub conversation of all things! I started doing some research and found this forum and have been following since.

ALL of the posts, both the positive and even the negative ones, the very well informed and not informed at all, have helped me as a layperson, build an understanding of the potential of this company and the exploration they have been doing.
The negative posts I have found particularly helpful (albeit sometimes also annoyingly rude and unhelpful),  as they made me question the positive posts more, and often brought out good arguments worth reading.

So a HUGE and heartfelt thank you to ALL the wonderfully well informed posters, who have helped educate me, about the results and interpretation of the results of the drills AND the potential of this company since joining this forum.

I finally bought in with a few parcels around 11-12c back in late 2015, and have also topped up in the last few weeks before it went super crazy.  

I now have quite a substantial holding (for me anyway), which has the potential to be a game changer for my financial independence and freedom!
Particularly more so, IF the share price was to reach the $2+ range.

Many of you are talking of having a plan of when to sell, of taking profits, being free carried etc.

My gut feeling, based on all the posts I have read so far, is telling me to hold on to all of my shares,
and allow this to play out into the future.
As always you must make your own decisions, and accept the consequences of those decisions, but this forum has certainly been a great place for learning.

Which brings me to my question!  
I would like to ask for some discussion around the future potential of the share price, to help me think through what my next steps will/should be re holding or selling and when.

I understand one of the possibilities is that Carnarvon will be bought out by a bigger player which means I would not get to make a decision, ie the decision would be made for me. If this was to happen it would now be at potentially a much higher price than 80c a share – more likely over $1.00?

If this doesn’t happen then where do we go from here ……. What is the potential / what are the possible scenarios for the company and share price.

So many variables, and impossible to predict perhaps, BUT I  like the idea of some informed discussion around the possibilities…..
rather than wild and wishful thinking!

Eg
Based on a Ya post in recent days summarising the mmbbls potential of all the reservoirs
Roc, Phoenix and Dorado (to be revised) , but not including Labryinth or Buffalo….

1) PS-1 has 2C - 7 mmbbls gross
2) Roc with 2C - 78 mmbbls gross
3) PS3 targetting 143 mmboe gross (71% CoS).
4) Dorado revised estimates – was 98mmbls

The total is a min of 326 mmbbls before the revised Dorado estimate.

Based on a profit margin of 10USD per barrel – sorry I forget which poster came to that figure as a conservative estimate….. that allows for a value of $3.26 billion and a share price of $2.70 (based on 1.2billion shares)

Is this a rookie calculation or does this work??
Please keep in mind I am still learning!

Look forward to hearing from everyone.