Personally, I'd suspect that whoever is shorting is not playing for pips in the lead up to launch. Although, the sell side volume is now more than double the buy side suggesting potential further weakness prior to launch, which may make such shorting profitable.
Nevertheless, I'd suspect the shorter/s would have the holistic view of betting against a successful launch, as opposed to a selldown prior to launch. The SP decline if the launch was a failure would make for extremely lucrative shorting. However, if the launch is successful then the SP rally would leave shorters' gasping for oxygen.
Hence, it becomes a game of weighing up the risks associated with the launch itself. Given the strong track record of launches (what was it again, 35 or 37), I'd suggest that the risk of an unsuccessful launch is reduced. But, launching rockets into space cannot be naively perceived as risk-less given this track record, and I would suggest more variables exist that could negatively impact the launch, so one cannot discount such risk.
Thus, I'd suggest shorting will increase over the next few days prior to launch, as our rivals speculate an unsuccessful launch. It is a reasonable position to hold, so I cannot criticise them.
I myself, have built my position over the past 6 months, and considered taking my profits last week ... but decided against it due to the blue sky I see ahead, and my belief in management. I have set contingent orders to minimise my downside risk if this launch goes pair-shaped.
This is definitely one very giant leap for mankind.
SAS Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
