Thats about the most bullish (ramping ,, maybe) post from you...

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Daripper

2,638 Posts.

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24/02/20

11:35

Post #: 43109015
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Originally posted by Scarpa: ↑

Personal view - there are a lot of variables at stake.

1. The most important variable is getting to market in the stated date of AVZ (2022), but for me just make it this side of 2025. If don't do that FAhas turned to adverse and SP drifts down.

2. Obviously 1 depends on Offtake Agreements and finance (assuming equity for Offtake Agreements don't fully fund the mine).

3. Meeting your DFS variables, especially cost variables and recovery rates as sensitivity analysis deals with price movements.

4. Just imagine what PLS's SP would be if they did met their DFS cost variables. Their DFS was on US$550 per tonne, so their porblems are around cost and recovery rates.

5. whilst you expect shares on issue do dillute SP, be mindful under equity for Offtakes those shares won't be tradeable btw (i.e. but impact dividend streams), so SP is a function of P/E ratios (which can vary from 5:1 to 10:1 and tradeable shares themselves).

6. If AVZ do get into production in 2022 as stated by AVZ, and they subsequently meet their DFS variables around costs and recovery, which I suspect they will given the resource, but transport is the risk there btw and remains so, then SP is going to be a lot higher than where it is now. So long term much higher if meet the cost estimates of the DFS, and if do that then most will be singing this song I suspect LOL

7. I'll just follow FA andf milestones are met the SP will look after itself - and I'll be singing the latter part of the song by the way LOL, from 2.20 onwards that is

8. The DFS/Offtakes/finance key movements going forward.

9. Gee, I could be almost accused for almost doing a 'ramp'.

I am with you on that one too, LOL

All IMO

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Thats about the most bullish (ramping ,, maybe) post from you that I can remember mate.... you even got out of character and posted a "song vid' to support it.

Last edited by Daripper: 24/02/20

AVZ Price at posting: 10.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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