Share Price Projections, page-23

My projections still obviously need to lose a further 3% off the top for sales comm., freight and insurance. On the other hand if CJ’s statement of “allow 50% for costs” happens to include everything like royalties etc we could be in for a big boost.

I don’t recall making an estimate for H/L ratio in the first auction. I think you are misinterpreting the 75% H and 25% L that I have used in my projections. These percentages are what I see as conservative estimates for future production ratios (and hence future auctions) but certainly not the Oct auction or the 2^nd auction. I don’t see the auctions reflecting this ratio until auction number 3.

When I look at your suggested weightings and average the two I get 60% H and 40% L which is considerably higher than my gut feeling. Looking further into it I can see that they had stock of 120k crts at the end of June as opposed to the 100k that you are using. If I use your percentages on stock of 120k and 80k I get averages of 54%H and 46% L which I feel are a little more realistic but still probably on the high side.

Regarding the second auction: You appear to be basing your calcs on them processing stock only from 8245L. I don’t believe that the 70k stockpile all comes from there (but I could be wrong). I would be very pleasantly surprised if 90% H eventuates for that 2^nd auction. It will also probably include some left over low quality crts from the Oct auction. More likely be the 3^rd auction before we see close to 90% H methinks.

If what The Prince says is correct I certainly would not be ignoring it. I would read it to mean 40% high quality and rising. Perhaps 45% high by auction time, particularly if they produce more like 220k and cherry pick the best 200k.