The half year release has been managed very poorly:
1) Issuing new contracts announcement independent of half year and then delaying half year past the "good company" cut off of Feb 28
2) Giving the appearance of a "sneaky" by issuing late on a Friday night
3) Lumping in impairments of around $4m post tax in the announced result which makes it appear they are lowering guidance to the bottom of the 35-45m range previously announced when in reality they are smack bang in the middle
4) Re-opening on a morning the market is down almost 1% on the Ukraine
If not for this poor management of the release I can't see how the market could have anticipated much better than this:
1) Dividend payout is maintained and still a healthy 2.5c
2) NTA still going up despite write downs
3) Gearing falling despite being at - on managements view - at the bottom of the earnings cycle
4) Earnings of around $18.5m pre -impairments - around 6c EPS with the management forecasting improvements in 2H 14 to around $20m (around 6.5c - giving 12.5c in total for the year) and further unquantified earnings gains in 2015
5) PE at the bottom of the earnings cycle of 7.5- 8.0x based on 12.5c EPS pre-impairments
6) Cash flow from operations of $65m, and lower capex of $32m allowing debt reduction of close to $50m. On top of that cpaex will be further restricted to only $20-25m in the second half and with a lower dividend and improved earnings debt will fall even more. There are no immediate refinancing issues other than asset financings with the vast bulk of debt not maturing till 2020. The rest of the debt is either covered by cash or secured against specific assets. This is nothing like a Forge - with an $1.55bn balance sheet supporting around $450m in debt
7) Price to NTA of 0.37 - again nothing like a Forge which after its profit downgrade traded at 3 or 4 times NTA. Banks like to lend against assets and that is why NTA is crucially important in the mining services sector. As a previous project financier I know how crucial book value is in a troubled sector and the high asset backed MS companies will have a lot easier time with the banks compared to the intangibles dominated Balance Sheets like Forge. The market has not yet distinguished this difference and have lumped all MS together.
It will take some time and a catalyst but this stock will re-rate up.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- share price should be up
The half year release has been managed very poorly:1) Issuing...
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 5 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PRN (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
99.0¢ |
Change
-0.035(3.41%) |
Mkt cap ! $928.5M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.01 | $1.02 | 98.0¢ | $2.039M | 2.053M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 25380 | 98.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
99.0¢ | 46450 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 25380 | 0.985 |
7 | 115065 | 0.980 |
6 | 65105 | 0.975 |
6 | 166222 | 0.970 |
2 | 8790 | 0.965 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.990 | 46450 | 3 |
0.995 | 49575 | 2 |
1.000 | 73327 | 3 |
1.005 | 7690 | 1 |
1.010 | 7690 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 04/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PRN (ASX) Chart |