To sell one of the greatest compounding machines in Australia,...

To sell one of the greatest compounding machines in Australia, at a PE of 13, is resoundingly stupid. If I was an analyst having to admit that to the world, I would be embarrassed too (regardless of what the the share price might have subsequently done).

But I suspect that to buy ARB at current prices, might be stupid in equal magnitude.

I love the way analyst's & investors keep finding ways to justify a higher share price, just because the share price has gone up in recent years (and conversely keep finding ways to justify a lower share price, just because the share price has gone down in recent years). These sentiments are examples of running with the herd. The antidote is independent thought, scepticism, contrarianism (and perhaps even a touch of the curmudgeon).

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The question is, what is a rational cause of action today, based on what we know now.