My target share price.
Treat the 4 values as columns down the page. Format issues.US
Trofinetide treatment price per patient(guide)
US$100,000US$200,000US$300,000US$400,000
Neu royalty %
10%
US$10,000.US$20,000.US$30,000.US$40,000
x 3000 US patients
US$30m.US$60m.US$90m.US$120m
A$45m.A$90m.A$135m.A$180m
126,000,000 NEU shares on issue
Estimated fixed operation costs US10m / A$15m
Excluding pipeline development which is funded by milestone/voucher payments. Covering 4x Phase 2 trials.
Tax rate 30%
= Earnings per share:
US$0.11.US$0.28c.US$0.44c.US$0.61c
A$0.17cA$0.42c.A$0.67c.A$$0.92c
Dividend payout ratio:
50% CSL (Cochlear pays 75%)
= Dividend per share @50% ratio)
US$0.055.US$0.14.US$0.22.US$0.31
A$0.083A$0.21.A$0.33.A$0.46
Dividend to Share Price Multiple
90x Dividend = CSL Share Price (Cochlear multiple is 70)
Share Price Target based on above.
=Share price @90x Dividend
US$4.95.US$12.60.US$19.80.US$27.90
A$7.43A$18.90.A$29.70.A$41.85
The above valuations are based on US solely.
Involving only 3000 patients. (30% approx. of identified US market.)
The lowest base possible of a 10% royalty. It is scaled and could be up to 15%.
Trofinetide pricing is unknown at this stage.Thus 4 price points stated.
However, guidance seems to be leaning towards the US$300,000 zone atm.
Bring in the Rest of World deals and those numbers double or triple at base rate royalties and base patient penetration rates.
ROW deals are likely to be on much more beneficial terms to NEU. Gaining even stronger financial outcomes.
Share Price Target based on above with US and with ROW @3x US only.
US$14.85.US$37.80.US$59.40.US$83.70
A$22.28A$56.70.A$89.10.A$125.55
These target prices are for Trofinetide only.
I use CSL and Cochlear as similar companies for comparison.
I have used US$ x 1.5 = A$
Orphan drug price average is approx. US$190,000 (2017)
Neuren may not need to retain as much earnings as CSL or Cochlear enabling even larger dividends to shareholders.
Good luck to all and may the Rett sufferers, their families and carers get some respite and better quality of life. And hopefully some very significant reversal from this disease.
Share Price Target IF approved.
Add NEU (ASX) to my watchlist
 (20min delay)
|
|||||
|
Last
$19.70 |
Change
0.520(2.71%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.515B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $19.39 | $19.84 | $19.28 | $5.675M | 288.6K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1531 | $19.66 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $19.81 | 557 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
|
|||||
|
Last
$19.70 |
Change
0.520 ( 2.59 %) |
||||
| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $19.50 | $19.84 | $19.28 | 87628 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 03/05/2024 ? | |||||
| NEU (ASX) Chart |