Timeline has already slipped on off takes and financing from...

Timeline has already slipped on off takes and financing from earlier expectations. Part of that probably due to typical reasons and part of it due to Covid shut downs slowing customer test work and off takes. Many countries have been reopening their economies and factories and this latest timeline might even now be conservative so while there might be some more slippage, it could easily go the other way as well and we could see financial close, subject to off takes, well before the end of the year.
As for plant assembly, I’m no engineer but as far as I understand it, this is a standard process and plant assembly should not be out of the ordinary. I see no reason why to expect delays on that and if finance is closed over the next 3-4 months instead of 6 months, then construction can start earlier. There has been timing slippage twice now. First with the Orica agreement taking longer than expected which delayed the DFS and more recently, with the Covid delays. This schedule reflects those delays and hopefully this one is now being conservative. I think this time risk might be to a shortening of the schedule rather than delays to it again.
I also think my base case target covers a significant level of risk and often the market gets to a point where it shrugs off some of the risk and prices a stock much higher. This was at 27c before Covid and that was before a lot of positive developments. The market is certainly moving to a risk off phase again and A4N hasn’t done the same yet. Also look at KRR. They have a mc of around $60mill and they haven’t even released PFS results or determined whether they may need to process offshore to achieve a reasonable margin. No pilot plant production either yet and then a DFS. Also they are using a different feedstock so they are full of risk. Sometimes the market ignores a lot of risk. A4n has removed a big part of that risk. I think a market cap of around $200 million is easily justified by now considering DFS forecast cash flows of $A280mill could easily justify a market cap in excess of A$2bill within 3 years. Many stocks projecting that sort of cash flow that soon with a capital cost of similar magnitude to annual cash flow and such a quick pay back would trade at a market cap of $200mill or more and continue to rapidly trend higher through construction. I think any remaining risk is easily factored in. I also think that I am being conservative on my dilution assumption but that’s fine for now, and I could be very conservative on my HPA price assumption. If the market used my assumptions on HPA prices then ATC would probably trade well below its current market cap and they would have no hope of raising US100mill for 49% of their project. I would love to see that work out because based on relative FS cash flow projections, that would value our project at around $600mill before plant construction even begins.
Some risk always remains. Just look at our big four banks. It’s a matter of weighing up the level of risk against the likely upside and that makes this look like an excellent investment. Try as I do, I’m yet to find something I like better on that risk versus reward balance based on my own risk tolerance.