I was one of the lucky ones that managed to sell out of PDN just before administration, but have been following the outcome of the administration.
I would like to begin a discussion, that can be taken up by other holders with more experience and detailed knowledge of PDNs balance sheet. In short, I think many holders believe that, if EDF don't spoil the party, they have lost 98% of their investment. I think the real situation is, indeed, much better.
If we consider the enterprise value of PDN at 30Jun16, well before the s*&t hit the fan, and when the spot price of Uranium was at similar levels to today (circa USD$25), we have
1712 million shares @ approx $0.18 = AUD$308m
Bondholders Debt of approx USD$362 = AUD$482m
EDF Debt of approx USD$277 = AUD$369
Adding Market Cap to debt gives an Enterprise Value (EV) of approx AUD$1159 million.
After relisting the debt is wiped, and a new USD$115m is obtained (AUD$153).
If we can consider the state of the company upon commencement to trading to be at least as good as 30Jun16 when the Ux price was similar, my best guess for the share price upon commencement of trading will likely be $0.59.
This figure represents (EV - Debt) / NumShares = ($1191m - $153m) / 1712m.
$0.59 is much better than the 4.7 cents at last trade. So in a sense, rather than thinking that we've lost 98% of our investment, we can think that we've retained closer to 25% of their value. Without the enormous debt overhang, and improving spot price of Ux, things are only likely to improve.
Please check my calculations, but I think there is some hope yet.
Good luck, and let's hope EDF don't spoil things!
PECS.
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