Share Price Valuation $1 - $2
This was such a great post from Captain Blood I thought it deserved its own heading.
Post #:18157878
30/06/16
My prediction at start of April ... hopefully we're on track.
April 3, 2016:
Valuations based on assumption of mining out only current reserves with no further growth/discoveries.
Val 1) Developed Product Bauxite Only
Assumptions; bulk Bauxite from Malaysia resumes and Indonesia return to market in 2016, meaning no viable bulk raw market until 2018, ABX current client increases demand to 120k/annum, 3 other customer found one shipment/annum for a developed bauxite product at EBITDA/tonne $30. Total: 240k/annum. Net Profit margin after research/development deductions: $25/tonne attributable to shareholders.
Annual Profit: $6mil., Assuming market allocates value 6% div. of Market Cap= $100,000,000. S.P.= $0.60, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41 ...
TOTAL $1.01 S.P. by 2017.
(Increases 2018/19 when bauxite market recovers).
Val 2)
Assumptions; bulk Bauxite from Malaysia resumes and Indonesia return to market in 2016 by Aug when Chinese stockpiles depleted, under refined operating standards (higher production costs), meaning viable but low-value bulk raw market until 2018, ABX developed bauxite products at EBITDA/tonne $30 (4-6 customers) 400kt. Total: 240kt/annum. Bulk Raw shipments: 200kt/annum at EBITDA/tonne $15
Net Profit after research/development, taxes, interest: $25/tonne developed, $8/tonne raw, attributable to shareholders.
Annual Profit: $7.6 mil., Assuming market allocates value 6% div. of Market Cap= $127m. S.P.= $0.88, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41 ...
TOTAL $1.29 S.P. by 2017.
(Increases 2018/19 when bauxite market recovers).
Val 3)
Assumptions: ABX sells 240k.t./annum developed product at EBITDA/tonne $30, Chinese stockpiles diminished (due Aug 2016) Malaysia exhausted its reserves (suggested in mining publication), Indonesia enters market under Australian equivalent marketing conditions propelling price back into $40-60/tonne range. ABX finds market 1mil tonnes/annum at EBITDA/tonne $15.
Net Profit after research/development, taxes, interest: $25/tonne developed, $8/tonne raw, attributable to shareholders.
Annual Profit: $14mil., Assuming market allocates value 6% div. of Market Cap= $233,000,000. S.P.= $1.60, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41c ...
TOTAL $2.01 S.P.
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