Hi Felice, its an interesting question and of course much of it...

Hi Felice, its an interesting question and of course much of it will depend upon the price of gold at that time.

From the fundamental analysis I have worked out and posted previously, there is a range of between 18 cps (at US$800/oz) and 38 cps (at US$1,100/oz). At the moment the fundamentals point to the upper part of that range, ie closer to 38 cps.

THIS ANALYSIS DOES NOT CONSIDER MAPAWA WHATSOEVER!!!
(MAPAWA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ABSOLUTELY DWARF SIANA).

For a VERY long time RED has suffered hugely in the market due to disbelief that RED would ever get a project up and running. I don't believe it is related to the Siana project at all, since all technical work has demonstrated that there is a considerable gold resource (at very attractive grades, esp for the open pit stage PLUS the resource drilling remains OPEN at present). The doubt I believe has been a combination of the "Philippines factor" and managements previous strategy to promise too much too early without delivering on those promises - especially in the areas such as: Initial resource estimate for Siana, was expected about a year earlier than when it happened, and the granting of Mapawa MPSA. And of course BOTH of those milestones have been finalised now and many more besides, so that the "Philippines factor" is largely dealt with and RED management has now got on with the business and got runs on the board.

From my observations the outstanding issues are generally final permitting/licensing arrangements for Siana development and month by month these things are being cleared up.

The final hurdle is the financing arrangement. It appears that RED are going to undertake that on a combination of debt and "modest" equity and announcement of this will be a key driver to RED's next incremental push towards true value.

If we look at Medusa (MML) and CGA, both with gold mining operations in the Philippines (and in particular MML being a small operation at present but mining high grade underground gold with currently high profit margins, and being only about 150 kms from Siana) we can be confident that both the "Philippines factor" should not impede future share price growth of RED (both remain considerably at a premium to fundamental valuations).

IMO upon RED announcing its financing package, there is likely to be a considerable leg up, and that will be where the scramble by those holding out at present will determine that initial move. From then on, and with improved PR (that currently is in transition) the broader market will slowly realise that a new LONG LIFE, LOW COST gold miner is in transformation! That is where the price should slowly start to push from that first leg up to closer to fundamentals. How far that goes of course depends again on the gold price, but I would expect RED to be trading at a PREMIUM to that valuation at the time of its first gold pour!

What will also confuse (POSITIVELY) the issue will be any announcements of work being carried out on Mapawa, we KNOW that is around the corner now. IT IS LIKELY to considerably increase investor interest once people find out that there is POTENTIAL for a WORLD CLASS porphyry gold/copper deposit in a few locations within the Mapawa MPSA, but starting at the LSY Prospect.

On the technical side, we also have some things to consider.

1. The Siana development begins with a stock standard open pit mining operation, but initially before development can proceed it requires a dewatering of a considerable amount of water from the historically mined pit. This has been fully analysed from all relevant aspects, including overall cost to dewater which is included in the current financial analysis, environmental monitoring and permitting to despose to adjacent Lake Mainit, other engineering aspects, and it presents as nothing that has not been successfully completed in many other old pits that have had to be dewatered. (Any suggestion it presents as a major issue is bunkum based on MY OWN knowledge of what has been done elsewhere for many other operations, and also I have visited Siana site and followed the route through to Lake Maint! IMO it is just part of the development process).

2. Once the dewatering process has been finalised and pre-strip development has commenced I have no doubt RED will want to poke some more holes from the base of the pit to pursue likely extensions of the current resource to the adjacent areas - RED's exploration work has been handicapped by the current water in the pit, making it more costly and the opportunity to drill within the pit may provide a quick increase in additional resources at Siana!

3. Siana is a LONG LIFE mining operation, and the existing resources are very likely to be increased with extensions both laterally and vertically from its base case 890,000 ounces. But it should also be pointed out that within that gold inventory, there are other gold resources, not within the existing RESERVES that will come out once development proceeds. (They sit within the Inferred Resource category at present and will be mined as a natural progression to mining development).

4. Base Case gold production at present ONLY considers Siana development. But it is clear that considerable resources exist at Mapawa, (conservatively estimated to be 3 million tonnes at say 2 g/t, equivalent to ca. 200,000 ozs gold - I'm not sure about silver at Mapawa!). That will add to the overall Siana gold production profile.

5. In addition Zn by product circuit is likely to be installed as Siana moves into underground production in about year 3 (maybe a bit later on), that will also appreciably assist in reducing ALREADY LOW COST gold production costs.

The last 4 of these technical points will likely have a positive impact on increasing RED shareholder value. RED is not a trade proposition IMO, its a core hold for long term gold production.