Don't want to raise average in this one at all from 4c, if the company reaches it's aspirations of $600m-1bn by 2020
Some of the analysis below leads me to believe that the company may need to do a further CR during 2nd quarter of 2018 financial year should revenue deals after the 8 week testing period not provide the desired operating capital needed to continue with development and operational costs.
Initial report dated 24th January 2017 stated total of $5.5m working capital position well in excess, of it's funding requirements through to the launch of it's "3 Diamonds" nano-satellites in early Q2 2017, and beyond
Half yearly report 24/02/2017 capital @5,408,775 1.3b shares
28/03/2017 Quarterly activity report states:
$500k USD per year revenue from new agreement @3 satellites (potential $10-35m @full constellation)
Beeptool llc agreement late 2017
US DOD agreement
SocialEco MoU smartphone agreement
Cash in bank $2,950,000
Expenditure this quarter $2,459,000
Year to date (9 months) expenditure $2,970,000 - quarter $885,000
Future Expenditure:
Based on Investor Presentation dated 27/03/17
Launch of up to 200 nano-satellites from mid-2018
Estimated outflow for next quarter $1,528,000
Figures generated from report dated July 26,2016 @
http://www.satellitetoday.com/publi...bal-details-vision-200-satellite-leo-network/ indicate roughly $160m in costs
3 years 9 months to meet desired outcomes.
The current revenue derived from deals may translate to a low positive net outcome over the next quarter with operating expenditure exceeding revenue until after the 8 week testing period. During next financial year a positive revenue stream could equate from an average of $3-5m per satellite in line with the 2019 speculated earnings of $300-500m (100 satellites operational). This leads me to believe the capped earnings of 2018 financial year may be in the range of $9-15m. The 2019 financial year could see significant increases in profit as further satellites are integrated within the equatorial constellation allowing for a much broader degree of data based services.
How to get there from here?
Information taken from the Investor presentation dated 27/03/2017
1.52b shares @21.5c - current share price 24c (rounded)
Construction and delivery of further nano-satellites to commence H2 2017
@$50-75m / 197 remaining satellites = $253-380k each
While construction of full constellation begins H2 2017, commencement of launch is indicated from mid 2018 with full coverage complete by mid 2019. This would lead me to believe that unless further satellites are launched this year we will be operating on a restricted revenue model due to data limitations and coverage up until that point.
Have done some math based on the SAS predicted revenue model
P18 Revenue Q2 2017 - $3m pa at current
2-3 years A$300-500m predicted <- this would not fully illustrate itself till mid 2019 due to increased satellite coverage
$3-5m revenue per satellite @ speculated $300-500m estimate would theoretically look like:
Q4 (Apr-Jun) 2017 3 satellites = $750k-3m based on current deals
Q1-4 2018 3 satellites = $9-15m
Q1 2019 25 satellites = $75-125m
Q2 2019 50 satellites = $150-250m
Q3 2019 75 satellites = $225-375m
Q4 2019 100 satellites = $300-$500m
While this is based on the companies speculative totals by mid 2019 the exact revenues per satellite are difficult to tell as individual deals hold there own $ value between SAS and the perspective client and the available data per $ is an unknown with these figures taken as an average of the companies speculative earnings.
At the current Mkt Cap it indicates that share holders have valued the company at roughly Q1-2 2019 speculated earnings.
It will be interesting to see how close my math is to where the revenues of the company translate to over the next few years, hope this post gave a useful summary and was not viewed as to speculative.
