AEF (ASX) Share Price

Originally posted by KoolKid: ↑

Howdy y'all.
I am very closely looking at AEF and waiting for an entry with a CONFIRMED REVERSAL.
From my (Unprofessional) Technical Analysis across ALL 3 charts, (Weekly, Daily, Hourly), it seems that this may be a rally with the short/medium term downtrend continuing.

Underneath i have highlighted the most recent support/resistance (red line) and circled any points of interests that contradicts the price action of at this current moment.

HOURLY CHART: Touches the resistance however fails to break out to create higher highs and lower lows to be reflected on the larger time frames and thus a reversal. Here you can see a lack of momentum and volume.
DAILY CHART: Does not break out of resistance and has relatively average volume. Oversold however lacks the volume of what you would expect in a reversal in oversold momentum, relatively speaking. MACD shows a potential cross over in the FUTURE which may suggest we still have room to slowly decline in price while it tapers off, and perhaps eventuating into the ideal circumstances for a potentially bullish reversal.

WEEKLY CHART: Shows that after weeks of rallying, a couple weeks of retracing follows from the highlighted candles. The horizontal support i have arrowed is out current resistance and the next support that is of i believe major significance is the horizontal support directly below and the diagonal is the trend support. With the lack of indicated volume even with the "hammer" candle suggests to me that this rally is not sustainable and we are more likely to continue retracing before the next bullish rally.

There is still more than 3 hours left for the discussed variables to change however if things keep at this pace i believe the retrace is more likely to continue. However i do believe we are somewhat nearing the "bottom" or maybe even looming at it. I could be completely off as seeing from AEF the volume is usually not that volatile however being at such a critical point in price as well as this rally, i personally believe and somewhat understand that volume should be atleast noticeable on some levels.

Not financial advice, just my opinion.

What do you guys think?

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UPDATE:
Looks like we have somewhat found a bottom which is a positive sign from my Technical Analysis. According to what i have identified, as discussed on the post i am replying to previously, i had found that the price was more likely to fall to which at the time of posting it was $7.53. It dipped to as low as ~$7.01 and as shown on the Hourly chart, it rebounded from that point twice. Daily and Weekly charts both indicates consolidation and accumulation with wicks touching the support indicating price rejection of that price point to fall further which can be seen more in depth with the hourly chart. Thus further strengthening the validity of it being our support however with Technical Analysis, nothing is sure but more about the imbalances or balances of different odds. Below i discuss my analysis in more depth with reference to the below chart.

PS. I didnt include OBV in these charts to allow a clearer view and analysis to you all and myself by reducing the clutter as this stock from my understanding has rather consistent volume outputs so OBV was rather flat.

HOURLY CHART:
Rebound of ~$7.01 support. Seems to have crossed above the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and may retrace back to it therefore a short term retrace and perhaps rebounding to test the ~$7.60 resistance range (11.06.21 - 15.06.21) to (hopefully) continue its short term uptrend which is seen having started from 17.06.21 after the bounce. Higher Lows, Higher Highs.

DAILY CHART:
Holds up support range and consolidating while slowly approaching the SMA. Rsi shows increase of momentum and a convergence of MACD. Indicates a bullish sign IMO. These signs are consistent to the fact that SMA is closing in and is expected to be tested which hopefully breaks and stays above it to suggest a new uptrend.

WEEKLY CHART:
Rejection of support range right below SMA. Indicating bears and bulls in somewhat equilibrium as also seen on RSI that is flat. MACD (aswell as low volume but as said i see it being somewhat standard in this company) is the last piece of the puzzle in all my 3 charts together that were shown to have me be confidently bullish. History suggests there is still more room for a retrace, perhaps during consolidation range? What could this suggest in relation to my other 2 charts above? Consolidation still to continue before SMA breakout? Weak + invalid break out of Daily + Hourly SMA charts until WEEKLY MACD begins to show Moving Average convergence trajectory? Or perhaps breakout of daily will change the weekly chart indicators to bullish as we are only 2 days into the new week?

In my opinion, i tend to take a more conservative approach and i wait for ALL 3 charts to be consistent with each other as a way for me to protect my capital. Therefore, i feel like we still have more consolidating to go from my weekly chart analysis. i dont think a down trend will continue. If it does, it wont get that far however i believe a short term run may be more likely as indicated on the shorter charts (daily and hourly) and perhaps a retrace as shown on the weekly back to consolidation.

Only time will tell. As i said, it is only Tuesday of the week. The company is looking more bullish from when i previously posted which is positive.
Least likely: Support breaks and continues to fall.
More likely than "Least likely (Above)" but still not THAT likely: Daily chart breaks out and is reflected on weekly chart thus new long term uptrend.
More realistic: Short rally and back to consolidation range before test, breakout and new uptrend.

ONLY IN MY OPINION. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.