Last year (or the year prior? I can't recall) it went from below $1.00 to around $1.80, then collapsed back to around $0.70 on no change in the business. It has done that, or similar, twice now. This year (as in the last month or so) it went from around $1.70 high to around $0.58 low.
Unlike previously, there HAS been a change in the business and it has been a STRONGLY POSITIVE ONE; we have a deal with Zoetis and despite not knowing the terms or maybe not getting the upfront we wanted, they are the biggest in the industry and they will pay for all the other testing (for other species), all the manufacturing and all the sales and distribution.
Sellers panicked and sold to any price as the terms of that deal weren't disclosed and the upfront payment wasn't as large as expected (though anyone of sane mind would realise that even a $10M upfront is only 20c/share).
There's has never been much volume in this stock and so if someone needs to sell a few million shares (say 5% of total shares) then they need sell at ANY price. They might do this because they're in at 50c, 60c or whatever and once it started falling they'll just take what they can get.
So it goes down, down, down and panic sets in (hey, I'm not immune, I didn't sell any and actually bought some but it does cause concern) and then one day, or one week, it hits a level (maybe today?) and people start doing the calculations (that I've done in previous posts) and realised that at $30M market cap, with $8M in cash and no great need for it, it's trading at an equity value of $22M.
If royalties come in at A$2M (say US$1.5M) and grow from there, then it's on a 10% earnings yield. If royalties can grow to A$4M (say US$3) then it's on a yield of about 20%! (p/e 5x)
That doesn't include bonuses from Zoetis (think was US$6M potentially) and it doesn't include human health upside. And it doesn't include the 'what if' factor, being 'what if' royalties grow to say $5M+ per year, just on the animal side?
The only 'what if' that's a danger here is 'what if' it doesn't get AVPMA and what if Zoetis decide not to sell the product (yes Anatara will have a fall back position and Zoetis will have dusted some cash, but peanuts for them if something better comes along).
I think both are highly unlikely, so once this selling clears (fund getting out of only 1M shares maybe, or a few early buyers taking whatever profit is left or a few late buyers finally throwing in the towel) you could very easily see this stock quickly move back towards $1.50+
And the funny part would be it might only be getting even tighter as the larger shareholders and backers of the stock haven't sold and might actually be buying.
Look forward to seeing the decimal point back in the right place on this one!
(20min delay)