Lynas clearly has a symbiotic relationship with it's ex China customers, basically read a handful of Jap mag makers, and does receive a premium over China domestic albeit it minimal.
What you haven't grasped re the majority of contracts is they are NOT 90 day "delayed" but effectively 90 day rolling averages.
You have a Chicken Little want to seize of every prices low to run all of your silly extrapolation whereas they are only a single data point in a 90 day series. Not so difficult to understand how that smooths out the peaks for the purchaser & the troughs for the seller.
Price today would be average August/October NOT some opportunistic customer ordering six month supply on the 20th Nov, simply not going to happen. Only 30 day chart NdPr but illustrates the smoothing of prices running a 90 day moving average:
Share Price, page-105
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Last
$7.71 |
Change
-0.090(1.15%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.206B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $7.78 | $7.80 | $7.59 | $17.72M | 2.310M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16763 | $7.70 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $7.73 | 13637 | 5 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 03/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| LYC (ASX) Chart |