The precious metals sector, in spite of the intense manipulation which is undeniable, is starting once again to reflect the soaring rate of dollar devaluation/price inflation.
After the run in the precious metals starting i think in March, it’s likely we’ll get brief periods
of technical consolidation with some two-way volatility.
But more money printing and deficit spending will most likely be generated to prevent the economy from sliding backwards again, (as per transitory inflation comments) which should be I.M.O a tailwind for the precious metals sector.
Gold is now making a serious run at the $1900 benchmark and silver is challenging $28. Both metals should undergo two-way volatility around those two key technical and psychological price levels. I would not be surprised if both price levels get breached with bullish conviction by the end of june early july.
Real yields, the annualised return a benchmark government bond generates once inflation is taken into account, can provide a reliable read on future economic growth and monetary policy; they also have a uniquely strong bearing on the attractions of riskier fixed income assets, currencies and other investments like gold etc.....Real yields are most closely associated with the yield on 10-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Security (also known TIPS), the world’s most heavily traded and liquid ‘linker’.
For several years, yields on US TIPS, whose principal and nominal coupon payments are tied to the US Consumer Prices Index, have been negative. They are currently 0.85 per cent below zero, as per the chart ive posted below.. This unusually low reading testifies to the ultra-loose policies central banks have put in place to reflate the economy, and implies investing in ostensibly safe US government bonds will lose money, in real terms, over the long run.
A negative real yield has also changed risk calculations. The realisation that an investment staple such as US treasuries might lock in a loss has been instrumental in encouraging investors to add riskier fixed income securities and other assets such as gold to their portfolios.
There will come a time of transition when stimulus is wound back. But whatever this transition looks like , investors should give the real yield their attention.It has always been a useful guide.
The speed of policymakers’ pullback, and the amount of inflation they are prepared to tolerate as they tighten the reins, could upend risk and reward calculations for every fixed income asset etc , from government securities through to corporate bonds and emerging market debt, equities (sectors), gold, currencies.
Tracking the real yield can give investors an invaluable steer on how developments could unfold. To understand its significance, it’s necessary to look at the real yield’s relationship with nominal yields.
The yield gap between conventional and inflation-linked debt is critical. Known as the breakeven rate, it is the level at which investors are indifferent to owning one type of security over the other given all available information on price pressures in the economy. Put another way, the differential represents the market’s best estimate of the future level of inflation. The wider the gap, the higher inflation is expected to be in future and vice versa.
Im still trying to get a practical grip on all this and hope ive obtained some level of clarity on another GP pressure point.
Thats it for me today. My eyes are cactus, im burnt out, Best of luck to all....
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