watch the USTs for guidance. Especially the real rates but...

watch the USTs for guidance. Especially the real rates but nominal rates will also give you guidance - at this time of the cycle.

Once UST 10Y hits 2% or thereabouts FED will panic and will start buying USTs to suppress rates down. Once this happens POG will turn up but until then we will see weakness in price.

Reality is the FED and almost all CBs (except for Russia, Norway and very few others) are cornered and have no way out. They supported this debt driven "recoveries" that basically means borrowing from the future with no plan, and now appears no intentions, to pay that debt back. As more printing will eventually start to debase most fiats while rates will be kept artificially low in order to get of all debt via inflation this is when POG goes up by a lot. And my view is we are getting really close to that point.
I seriously doubt US can afford rates to go much higher and I believe their 10Y will not be allowed to go any higher than 2.5% and that number is at the high end of my range.

Not sure if you remember but I called for POG to fall once 10Y passes 1.6% but that did not happen as many traders thought FED will respond soon and rates did fall for a week from 1.8% down to 1.5%. POG went up a bit actually. Now it seems Mr Market decided to call FED's bluff and will be pushing rates up and POG down until FED reacts for real.

Also, some might be selling gold to get away early in an event of larger market correction that can trigger massive margin calls. One large Hedge Fund already blew up last Friday and downstream effects are still being felt. Will be interesting if couple of more blow up in the coming days. Too many took margin loans against too little collateral.