Playing the macro?
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Yes, SLX looks like playing the macro this week. From a weekly perspective, a moderate drop from 425 to 405. Looking vulnerable now. SLXs most prone to follow the macro. And macro certainly looking weakish. Spot price fell below psychological number of 80 yesterday. Time for caution I feel. As I have been writing, most U stocks I was expecting a fall of around 50%, SLX made 385 from 675, 50% would be around 338, so that can happen on weakness. Also, because its a big player, it can be pushed up and down based on indices rather than U play. So that play around 350 can still happen, but if that were to happen, many other U stocks would also go much lower. I am not expecting it, but its best to have an open mind.
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So what is happening? U stocks are in consolidation phase. As I wrote last week in my weekly report, I was expecting a churn this week. Its playing accordingly. When this churn happens, sometimes we feel positive, sometimes negative. Based on US U trading yesterday, and ASX U today, one would think, we are in slightly negative thoughts and play currently. As I have been writing now, I feel CCJ needs to hold the 39/40 level to at least have a neutral feeling. A drop towards 35 once again may be scary, and not holding 35 may be very bad for sector. A rise towards 45, will dramatically increase the odds that CCJ may see a new all time high above 56 in the next couple of months. So at this stage, all options are open, and it may be best to follow price action. I still feel CCJ 39/40 is a very critical level, and what happens from here (up/down) may give trend next few months. So for all the bulls, lets hope its on the upside.
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Personally I no buys for me this week. As I wrote last week, I had bought one lot at 420. I want to buy higher now, so waiting.
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So what could happen next week? All eyes on CCJ. Where does it want to go? For last 3 months I have been writing that we may see a May end top, a July end bottom and a September end top (+/- as nothing is accurate). From that perspective its still playing that game. But current sentiment is down, somehow. Its clear. For me its time of caution, being alert to see whether the sentiment collapses. Although the odds are not that big, but we should never rule it out. At this stage, I still believe in the theory of Sep end (Oct begin) top for U sector, CCJ to reach mid 60s, but its based on a hunch, based on a trading pattern I am following for last 3 years, there is no guarantee. I am a very small player, there are bigger entities on Twitter and You tubes, I don't know what they are saying, so I could be completely wrong. Also Powell speaking tonight in Jackson Hole. He can move markets - both up and down. So we may get a direction for next week after his speech - from general markets perspective. Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
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