No the the US$320m/yr was for 2,857,144SWU/yr which as Scaggs points out (and I also did) is about half the 6MSWU enrichment capacity shown by SLX/GLE in their recent presentations. My assumption in my last post was that Cameco did not take up their option to 26% but remained at 49& but that the PLEF enrichment plant (both from tails to NUF6 & (for 5Mlbs/yr) is restricted to 5Mlbs/yr of NUF6 which is then further enriched to produce 714,286lbs of 4.4% LEU. I took the pessimistic assumption that the PLEF output was restricted by the 5Mlbs/yr of NUF6 feedstock which is is constrained by our existing agreement with the DOE for tails. As Scaggs points out the NUF6 production from tails could be roughly doubled (with the agreement of the DoE) to produce 10mlbs/yr of NUF6 which would then roughly use all the 6MSWU shown in the GLE/SLX presentation (the alternative would be to buy in the additional NUF6 from Cameco's Port Hope conversion facility). If 6MSWU/yr of 4.4% LEU was utilized (to produce roughly 1.5Mlbs/yr of 4.4% LEU) then the earnings from the 6MSWU plant would roughly double to US$640m/yr (this would only be the case if the DoE allowed us to double the tailing processing - if GLE had to purchase the NUF6 from Cameco (Port Hope) then our (SLX) GLE earnings (still holding 51% of GLE) would be reduced by US$180m/yr to roughly US$460m/yr).
b
As Scaggs points out the more likely scenario is that Cameco take up their 26% option to move to 75% of GLE in which case SLX's income from it's 25% equity GLE would be roughly halved with an unchanged royalty (i.e US$106myr for the 5Mlbs NUF6 option and US$212m/yr for 10Mlbs/yr of NUF6 with a fully utilized 6MSWU enrichment plant. The advantage of Cameco taking up their option is that SLX would then probably have sufficient cash from the sale of its 26% to Cameco to finance its 25% interest in the PLEF and have a BBB credit grade lead operator (i.e Cameco) as the principal owner. This would definitely "oil the wheels" for financing the PLEF and help in getting a US government guaranteed loan for the PLEF capex. IMO raising the necessary Capex will be a hurdle for Centrus (debt US$170,3m and NOT investment grade - the DoE own their existing HALEU ACP plant) and likely impossible for aspirants (such as ASP isotopes & LIS Technologies) who IMO are too immature to bid for the RfP due on 26 August.
I see that Silex are giving a presentation on 24th October in Sydney (see HERE) - the AGM should be somewhere about this date - hopefully news on TRL/6 test before then.
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