What a great couple of days!!! Ended at 13.15 and closed after a monster $280,000 auction to close at 13.25!! This could retrace again, similar to earlier in the year...anything is possible on the ASX, but things have definitely changed for the better for Vulcan...see my previous post. Just a refresher of the timeline below. We should be in production and completed stage 1 by mid 2024, with stage 2 to follow about a year later. And Cobrakai- '
5-6 years from production'. Try 2.5 to 3, which is not a lot for most spec miners and startups.
$1.75bn aud capex. EU 1.073billion Correct, but there will be low cost financing, EIT Innoenergy involvement, tax credits, carbon credits and EU grants to get this project up. We may even have a partner/JV to share costs.
no offtake will justify this sort of insanity. Any time Tesla in even mentioned, look at what happens to an SP...eg.PLL. So if we do have a leak by a major player and a BOA about to drop(VW, Daimler, Tesla, BMW), I would expect this sort of SP run
By then Lithium could be replaced. No chance, in the near future at least. I have been following battery tech as this is the one area I can see the whole lithium market being derailed. The batteries we have now are an evolution which was mostly driven by mobile phones. A quantum leap revolutionary tech that does not require lithium would take 10+ years in labs, development, testing regulatory approval, commercialisation and cost competitiveness. There are some really interesting ideas and test programs out there, but they are years from being made commercial and become mainstream industry practice. Lithium is the only product we have currently that can pack the power density into a cell small and light enough to be considered going into a personal motor vehicle.....and its still too heavy. There is some interesting tech being tested for home/commercial power storage, but its heavy and requires space. That tech is well advanced but is still 5+ years away. You can play around with the anodes and cathodes, but lithium is still the major element.
the 'dual' revenue stream. the geothermal part, its pretty ordinary..... You call EURO 157,000,000 or AU$ 249,206,349/pa pretty ordinary? Thats a quarter of a billion/year just in energy generation, back to the German grid with a guaranteed feed in tariff of Euro 25.2c/kwh. Will probably be higher in 2024, but at the moment, its guaranteed for 20 years. They may also sell the heat generated, which has not been factored in.
Please also remember, whatever lithium prices you are seeing today will be 30-50% more in 2024 and beyond. So whatever BOA's are signed, remember to add this on top of current market values. This has been well documented by multiple experts, financial institutions, forecasters etc..etc...
As below, they quote EU500 million/year revenue for 40kt LiOH, that works out to 12500/tonne. Now if you look at the current London metal exchange prices, they are currently US$15.75/kilo= 15750/tonne X 40,0000tpa = $US630,000,000
So,$US630,000,000/pa revenue lithium business only, add a conservative 33% for 2024 prices =. 210,000,000 + 630,000,000=
US$ 840,000,000/PA REVENUE, LITHIUM ONLY + (EU157,000,000= )US$185,700,000 pwr generation=
US$1,025,700,000/pa revenue or AU$ 1,387,810,000 or EU 869,000,000
So, are we witnessing the beginning of a billion dollar company? You make up your mind, but in my opinion, I think so....
I will leave you with one more point. The capex to build is EU1,073,000,000, which cobrakai made a point of To me it now looks like chump change to build a facility with a 30 year mine life that will generate in excess of 1 billion per annum.US, or EU 869,000,000
Hold fast Vulcaneers ...Good luck to everyone, IMHO.....
VUL Price at posting:
$13.25 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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