To me the lacklustre share price is possibly driven by the lower...

To me the lacklustre share price is possibly driven by the lower Daybue sales trajectory. The Daybue launch was very successful and I think this was extrapolated to suggest Daybue was going to greatly exceed expectations and forecasts. Then there was the hiccup in sales over Jan, the Culper report, and Acadia coming in just under bottom end of forecast.

So an initial sentiment of expecting large Daybue sales over-performance has now changed to a sentiment weighted towards under-performance, with a resulting large hit to Acadia shares and Neuren also.

In reality the Daybue performance is actually good for a new orphan drug. But if you're valuing Acadia and Neuren on the expectation that blockbuster billion dollar sales levels are going to be achieved quickly, you've had to reset your expectations.

This reinforces my view that Neuren is valued by the market primarily based on near term revenue & profits from Daybue. There's no revenue or profits from NNZ-2591 therefore NNZ-2591 is worth little...

It's been consistent all the way through that for Neuren an unapproved drug with no revenue is not worth much. Before Neuren's Trof Ph 3 trial results the share price was $1.80. After FDA approval it went to $14. In a DCF model this is equivalent to an 88% discount (or 12% probability of success). Such a low probability is far too conservative just based upon historical averages (which give more like 50% for a Ph 3). It's notable the share price was still only $7 before FDA approval. Was there only a 50% chance of approval? Objectively no - the likelihood of approval after the Ph 3 met it's end points was very high even if based upon historical averages. For Trof in Retts it was probably 95%.

I've done a large amount of research on historical Ph 1/2/3 approval rates in orphan diseases, and based upon the extremely good Ph 2 results I believe NNZ-2591 would have >80% likelihood of success through to approval.

However, all the above suggests to me the market (or at least the market buying Neuren) doesn't value pre-money drug assets no matter how strong the drug candidate is.

This does concern me a little with regard to the option of Neuren going it alone. If Neuren do this we'll have 3-4 years before another indication is approved and during that time I suspect Neuren will remain valued by Daybue sales alone. There might be a 5-10x share price increase when Prader-Willi, Phelan-McDermid and Angelman's are finally approved, but in the intervening years the share price may just drift downwards as Neuren's profits inevitably start dropping as it spends lots of $ on Ph 3 trials.

I feel a bidding war between multiple large Pharma is the only way to get a significant value put on NNZ-2591 in the near future.