Soz about Format. Gotta do on phone in notes.My thoughts...

Soz about Format. Gotta do on phone in notes.
My thoughts Taureanbull, right or wrong.

I think it is likely to trigger the US$50m milestone this calendar year. Payable Q1 2025.

$250m needs 667 patients for 52 weeks to meet milestone.

Based on Acadia 900 patients on Daybue at end of 2023.

I will assume the start of 2024 with quarterly nett patient growth of 20% per quarter for the year. Approx.

I base my numbers on about US$7212 per week per patient.

(using this for the Q4 2023 US$87.1m gives me 929 patients for the quarter. I will use 900)

But we do have the variable of patient drop outs v new or reentering patients. Which looks like it will be a better net gain with better patient management.

This puts us at 1866 patients end of year. Roughly double the 1st year total of 900. I use weekly pricing as many will not be full year. Rounded to each quarter.

966 net gain.

Roughly 18.5 patients nett starting/restarting each week.

With the case managers Acadia have, I beleive that to be reasonable.

Which also means, if 1866 patients carry over into the following year 2025 with no nett significant decrease the US$500 milestone is triggered. Which reqs 1333 patients for an entire 52weeks to trigger.

My back of envelope numbers, for a future valuation target, done about 1 yr ago, were based on 2500 patients being on Daybue eventually. And that gives me a valuation of about A$40 per share with P/E at 40 allowing for future growth, with other programs.
Being conservative. (very)

I hope this is useful. I welcome reasoned comments and other viewpoints on the above. And if I have made a boo boo, please straighten me out. HC like to do that bit

cheers TL