Absolutely agree that broader market is looking crook at the moment and Neu caught up in the crossfire. Acadia expectation jitters at play as well as Angelman results positioning based on risk appetite.
My personal metrics as an investor are these:
2024:
- Acadia meet the 250m sales threshold for unlocking the 50m US payment to Neu.
- Acadia showing forward trends in 2nd quarter that indicates stabilisation of numbers and gradual increase into q3 and q4. * I realise there is every possibility earlier guidance is downgraded. Maybe 81m US is more the mark for this 2nd quarter report. Hope to be surprised to the upside but my main metrics are the 250m milestone payment is met as a 2024 goal and some meaningful base and upward trend is established.
- Canada coming online Q4. Indications of a potential set up for 500m milestone for 2025.
- positive Angelman data.
- positive FDA protocol outcome.
- Trial design confirmation for PMS confirmed and dates for 2025 determined.
- Other indications update.
if Acadia is shooting below in Q2, we are still on track for the payment. Surely the revenue impact is more material for Acadia than us at this point. Still a few quarters to ramp up to 2025 milestones. 2591 solo market opportunity for PMS and PH is firmly in my mind.
Anyways that's my view.
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